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The end of ICE and possible alternative fuels

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Cachaco131

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Interesting chat on depreciation under the New Normal:
ICE cars falling out of favor, gasoline a dirty word, interest rate chaos and sports cars still a niche enthusiast segment.
What signals are being sent by the Insurance and Finance companies about valuations and residuals?
That's the barometer.
I think new ICE won't fully disappear if sustainable fuels take off. They will be more niche and sports cars oriented but can't see them fully disappear. And we dinosaurs will be able to enjoy our relics.
 

SuperBusa

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I think new ICE won't fully disappear if sustainable fuels take off. They will be more niche and sports cars oriented but can't see them fully disappear. And we dinosaurs will be able to enjoy our relics.
No more new ICE cars sold from 2030 has never been achievable ever since it was announced. Normal government pie in the sky, just waiting for the penny to drop and the date to change. EU is 2035 which has more chance. I'd put money on 2040.
 

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Evotion

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Yeah, ICE will be around. Hope they do fully stop them in 2030. My manual N/A Ferrari will make a lovely pension pot.

There are forces at work to change ICE into alternative fuel users. There have been solutions for decades. LPG never really took off but I do remember seeing one.
Maybe the solution is known but, er, oil giants come in, buy it up, and park it until it suits them.
 

FederGigant

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Personally I've more faith in this technology solving the problems longer term. Electrical power generation needs much more improvement to.
Funny thing is that you need ridiculous amounts of electrical energy to make synthetic fuels. It only works if we find a way to get those ridiculous amounts without any environmental impact, because EVs use the energy just way more efficient than any ICE with synthetic fuel.
 

SuperBusa

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Funny thing is that you need ridiculous amounts of electrical energy to make synthetic fuels. It only works if we find a way to get those ridiculous amounts without any environmental impact, because EVs use the energy just way more efficient than any ICE with synthetic fuel.
Know what you mean, the attractiveness of a liquid fuel is low vehicle weight penalty and existing distribution system. There are currently a couple of sensible ways of getting the energy, Solar or Hydro power both of which could be sited in optimal locations, due to ease of shipping the fuel that has been made. But if better battery technology could be invented then great, just don't see it right now.
 
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Cachaco131

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Funny thing is that you need ridiculous amounts of electrical energy to make synthetic fuels. It only works if we find a way to get those ridiculous amounts without any environmental impact, because EVs use the energy just way more efficient than any ICE with synthetic fuel.
Offshore wind will likely be the winner here. Any hydrogen transition for heating purposes ( heat pumps are not enough) will need green hydrogen.
 

mjw930

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My prediction, if you are over 50 you will not live to see the demise of ICE vehicles. Alternative technology is decades away from providing the reliability and convenience of todays motor vehicles.

The progressive outlook is totally abstract to the majority of humanity. Once these regulations start to affect the mobility of the average human things will change, lawmakers will adapt to the will of the people or lose their position of power or worse, we will devolve into civil uprisings.

For us it impacts our toys, once it becomes a life or death proposition for the average man things will get ugly.

We have an EV and it’s absolutely perfect for its use case, far superior to its ICE alternative in every way. When I can say the same about our ability enjoy our other ICE vehicles, cars, trucks, boats, motorcycles and ATV/UTVs then we can toast to the demise of the Internal Combustion Engine. That day will not come in my lifetime.
 

benjh1028

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I work in this space deploying private capital for renewable power as well as transitional energy. Interestingly conversion from dirtier hydrocarbons to natural gas is responsible for over half of GHG reductions over the past 10-years. Further, there is a massive push towards a “just transition” meaning power needs to be affordable and available to all for which there is no way to do this without fossil fuels. This has been amplified by the war in Ukraine and the European energy crunch (slight rant as to why Europe let their energy policy be decided by a Swedish teen and a Russian dictator?). Consensus - including from the Intl Energy Agency - is fossil fuel will grow until 2040.

Sustainable fuels are interesting, but how sustainable is burning biomas and municipal waste to make fuel? The industry can’t even make a dent in the minor demand from the airline industry so how does that translate to cars?

Hydrogen and ammonia, particularly green hydrogen, is an interesting alternative for sure. But just like other technology there has to be scale.

Good ole gasoline is just so efficient and cheap!
 

First Lotus

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Yeah, ICE will be around. Hope they do fully stop them in 2030. My manual N/A Ferrari will make a lovely pension pot.

There are forces at work to change ICE into alternative fuel users. There have been solutions for decades. LPG never really took off but I do remember seeing one.
Maybe the solution is known but, er, oil giants come in, buy it up, and park it until it suits them.
For a while yes. Until all us old relics who know how to drive a manual are pushing up daisies... Then my flappy paddle version will be victorious as the pension provider!
 

GetawayDriving

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ICE may be around longer than is projected, or synthetics may extend the shelf life, but I still think we're seeing the last generation of pure ICE. Meaning, everything from here on out will be assisted, hybridized, nannies and limits on emissions. Meanwhile, EV will be "unfettered", and able to chase pure performance. Essentially ICE as a toy for fun will be neutered to the point that EV will be more exciting. I still think Emira is among last call for (new under-warranty) pure sports cars with a simple, old-school unmolested ICE drivetrain. Which is exactly why I've ordered one, with the intention to keep it alongside a rotating cast of electrics.
 

Pops68

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My prediction, if you are over 50 you will not live to see the demise of ICE vehicles. Alternative technology is decades away from providing the reliability and convenience of todays motor vehicles.

The progressive outlook is totally abstract to the majority of humanity. Once these regulations start to affect the mobility of the average human things will change, lawmakers will adapt to the will of the people or lose their position of power or worse, we will devolve into civil uprisings.

For us it impacts our toys, once it becomes a life or death proposition for the average man things will get ugly.

We have an EV and it’s absolutely perfect for its use case, far superior to its ICE alternative in every way. When I can say the same about our ability enjoy our other ICE vehicles, cars, trucks, boats, motorcycles and ATV/UTVs then we can toast to the demise of the Internal Combustion Engine. That day will not come in my lifetime.
100%!!
 

TomE

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This is a discussion on ICE and alternative fuels, not climate change :)
 

Nova

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I believe the goal is to use renewable/nuclear energy to generate synthetic fuels, so synthetic fuels become a storage medium that is more attractive than building tons and tons and tons of batteries for use in cars.
 

TomE

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OK, this started as a discussion about the end of ICE and possible alternative fuels.

As was probably inevitable, it's strayed into discussions about climate change, so this thread is now locked and some posts deleted.
 
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