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I think you are right. In my case, they found it hard to tell what stuck the first thermostat. Lotus NA made the call to replace both. Fingers crossed, this was my Lotus glitch. At least I got to wrap codes, updates, 1000 mile service and new car issues all sorted at one time.It depends on how much sand residue exists. Here's the scoop, from the few "autopsy" photos that are floating around the "interwebs" it doesn't appear to take much to mess with the water pump and thermostat(s). My guestimate is that if you have this condition, it'll come up quick. Certainly after a few hundred miles of driving.