Lotus Emira Production Life vs. EU Ban on Gas Engines

[981KMAN]

What is the general consensus on the Lotus Emira Production Life in light of the EU's proposed ban on sales of gasoline engines in 2035? Is there any thought that Lotus will manufacture the Emira as long as there is customer demand and they can make a profit?

There is some dispute coming from the EU on the proposed ICE Ban from Germany & Italy if E-Fuel engines are not exempted. Germany Threatens to Hold Up EU Ban

What are your thoughts?

 

[action_turtle]

What is the general consensus on the Lotus Emira Production Life in light of the EU's proposed ban on sales of gasoline engines in 2035? Is there any thought that Lotus will manufacture the Emira as long as there is customer demand and they can make a profit?

There is some dispute coming from the EU on the proposed ICE Ban from Germany & Italy if E-Fuel engines are not exempted. Germany Threatens to Hold Up EU Ban

What are your thoughts?

Honestly, synthetics are the only way we should all be going. Battery cars are shocking for the environment for one, and secondly, we have billions of ICE vehicles on the planet; we are not just dumping all these in 10 years, and it's irresponsible to not keep as many existing cars on the road using clean fuel.

Car companies will jump to whatever sales. People rather ICE as its more convenient, so I would not be supprised to see electric cars fade away as soon synthetics arrive.

 

[Wolfram]

^^^ This

 

[Porter]

Honestly, synthetics are the only way we should all be going. Battery cars are shocking for the environment for one, and secondly, we have billions of ICE vehicles on the planet; we are not just dumping all these in 10 years, and it's irresponsible to not keep as many existing cars on the road using clean fuel.

Car companies will jump to whatever sales. People rather ICE as its more convenient, so I would not be supprised to see electric cars fade away as soon synthetics arrive.

Chemical energy density is more than an order of magnitude greater than what's possible with batteries today, and the difference in fueling time is like 50:1. Batteries will probably get there but it will require some pretty incredible technical breakthroughs that haven't happened yet.

The other problem with a full transition to battery vehicles is the shocking lack of public policy to address class inequity in access. Battery vehicles with current technology only make functional sense if owners are able to charge them overnight, which is nice and possible for single family homeowners flush with disposable income, but that's not possible if you live in multifamily housing or rent a home without charging infrastructure. Landlords aren't going to spend money to build charging infrastructure for some tenant's car, it's not going to happen. So without massive regulatory intervention, the whole battery car scenario will remain closed and inaccessible to 90+% of non-homeowners.

And what about the elderly on fixed income? We're just going to require them to install entirely new service infrastructure to their home to electrically fuel a car they rarely drive? Who pays for that?

I don't get why so many smart people don't seem to consider this stuff in context. I guess the Silicon Valley types who dream up and then market these utopian product scenarios just can't see very far past their own narrow experience. But hey, as long as it gooses a stock price for long enough for them to get a nice fat exit, then mission accomplished, eh?

 

[Mistral]

Chemical energy density is more than an order of magnitude greater than what's possible with batteries today, and the difference in fueling time is like 50:1. Batteries will probably get there but it will require some pretty incredible technical breakthroughs that haven't happened yet.

The other problem with a full transition to battery vehicles is the shocking lack of public policy to address class inequity in access. Battery vehicles with current technology only make functional sense if owners are able to charge them overnight, which is nice and possible for single family homeowners flush with disposable income, but that's not possible if you live in multifamily housing or rent a home without charging infrastructure. Landlords aren't going to spend money to build charging infrastructure for some tenant's car, it's not going to happen. So without massive regulatory intervention, the whole battery car scenario will remain closed and inaccessible to 90+% of non-homeowners.

And what about the elderly on fixed income? We're just going to require them to install entirely new service infrastructure to their home to electrically fuel a car they rarely drive? Who pays for that?

I don't get why so many smart people don't seem to consider this stuff in context. I guess the Silicon Valley types who dream up and then market these utopian product scenarios just can't see very far past their own narrow experience. But hey, as long as it gooses a stock price for long enough for them to get a nice fat exit, then mission accomplished, eh?

All valid points with which I concur but don't forget the shallow politicians who jumped onto the net zero cause without a thought for how it might be enacted.

 

[Porter]

All valid points with which I concur but don't forget the shallow politicians who jumped onto the net zero cause without a thought for how it might be enacted.

I mean let's be honest with ourselves, most politicians don't know shit about shit. They leave policy mostly to lobbyists for pet industries, which is sad because there are bunch of brilliant policy people with ethics who would love to help, but they get ignored in favor of whoever is handing out the biggest campaign donations.

 

[scoates]

As far as I'm aware the Emira was always meant to stop production before 2030 regardless of ICE bans around the world.

Things like synthetic carbon neutral fuels I think are absolutely the way forward, but with the relentless electric push I'm not sure they will ever enter the mainstream. Electric cars alongside carbon neutral synthetic fuelled ICE vehicles is the best way forward IMO.

A synthetic fuelled hardcore version of the Emira (or even future model?) in 2030+? Sign me up!

 

[Cachaco131]

Here in CA they already asked EV users to not charge on certain hot summer days because the grid can't handle it. Lol - the transition is decades away.

 

[simonb]

it is not as if Geely are firmly positioning Lotus as an EV brand

 

[FlyNavy01]

Emira will likely stop production pre-2030, long before any ban on ICE sales in the majority of governments around the world. I apparently disagree with most people's opinions on here about the current viability of synthetic fuels for the future (at least with how the technology currently stands), but I try to avoid any off topic debates. If you're interested, I'd advise looking into these developing energy technologies from unbiased sources with an open mind to develop your own opinions. For the general consumer (i.e. not us), price will drive everything.

At the end of the day, I personally don't think any enthusiast ICE consumers like you or I will have much to worry about for quite a while. In all but the most progressive countries, ICE sports cars will likely just become an even more niche product than they already are (similar to how high-end analog watches exist today in a world of digital everything). New ICE sales may be banned eventually, but I hope the "older" models, like the Emira, will be grandfathered in and allowed to continue running as they will be such a small percentage of vehicles on the road that they will be mostly negligible.

 

[Nova]

The countries have an incentive on a gradual phase out of existing cars on the road. First, there is the selfish reason that taking that number of cars off the road will lead to a significant strain on recycling capacity. Second is that lower income population cannot afford even older used electric vehicles. There is the additional concern that while electric vehicles are lower maintenance, the cost for an engine/transmission replacement is far lower than that for a battery replacement. Charging solution is also a problem for those who live in apartments or condos.

 

[JasonR]

my whole take on this is remember when the government said buy diesels and then screwed over everyone with tax once they bought them under the guise of the environment. That’s coming to electric cars next trust me because they are awful for the environment from a production standpoint. Depending on how long it takes everyone to figure this out will depend on how long the emira goes on for

 

[mrmoogee]

Because I live under a rock, I've only just started catching up on Guy Martin's series on Ch4 about energy production in UK, episode 1 literally spells out that "green EV energy" for the masses or whatever its marketed as, is either decades away or just near plain impossible.

Can't help but feel Lotus potentially shot themselves in the foot by declaring an end to Emira production so hastily, they of all people must know the EV infrastructure is far too fragile. If it was Porsche owners who they were looking to poach, why didn't they also adopt more a strategy to car production like them as well?

 

[New to Lotus]

Tax has no connection to the environment many new diesel cars are far cleaner than petrol and depending on how you look at the system evs. It's just income generation road pricing for miles travelled or tyre tax is next.

 

[simonb]

Because I live under a rock, I've only just started catching up on Guy Martin's series on Ch4 about energy production in UK, episode 1 literally spells out that "green EV energy" for the masses or whatever its marketed as, is either decades away or just near plain impossible.

Can't help but feel Lotus potentially shot themselves in the foot by declaring an end to Emira production so hastily, they of all people must know the EV infrastructure is far too fragile. If it was Porsche owners who they were looking to poach, why didn't they also adopt more a strategy to car production like them as well?

lotus are a niche player. If geely get 10% of a tesla sized market they would be happy, and probably sell more cars than Chapman did in his lifetime

 

[981KMAN]

Great discussion! Thanks for all the reply's and input!

I'm thinking that the EV may be similar to the Compact Disc (CD) in its adoption and production life. Highly praised in the initial adoption, yet shorted lived once we learned more about it's "short comings & dirty laundry", and final death with the introduction of better alternatives.

EV do not reduce pollution or carbon emissions, they just export it to a different location. Unless you are charging your EV with 100% Wind, Solar or Nuclear power, you are not reducing any carbon emissions, and that's beyond the whole Battery Production Carbon Emissions debate.

Yet beyond the carbon emissions discussion, the issue that will put a major "dent" in the EV life span will be Battery Life. Once folks realize that their EV is worth $25-40K less after 6 years because it's battery only holds 50% of it's original range and needs replacement, they will be less inclined to buy another. And the market place will shun used EV's.

My neighbor is a big Tesla Fan, and has owned 5 over the years. He buys new and sells after 2 to 3 years so he does not have to deal with the "used Battery Issues" as He puts it.

I hope that Lotus will continue to produce the Emira or it's future iterations if demand for an ICE sports car continues past it's currently planned sunset (2027 ??).

 

[Porter]

my whole take on this is remember when the government said buy diesels and then screwed over everyone with tax once they bought them under the guise of the environment. That’s coming to electric cars next trust me because they are awful for the environment from a production standpoint. Depending on how long it takes everyone to figure this out will depend on how long the emira goes on for

It's a conspiracy!

 

[Tokion]

It is very clear that the Supercharged Toyota 2GR-FE will “time out” way before the M139 Mercedes AMG I4 Turbo engine. The latter has lower emissions, and is also possible to reduce in sound output as laws in various markets get stricter. It is also worth noting that Mercedes AMG already has worked out various even more energy efficient “hybrid” solutions for the M139 engine (and these also add to the power output). Nobody wants lots of heavy lithium batteries in the EMIRA, but we may have to put up with a minimum if it makes the EMIRA stay legal for sale. At least some countries will have a stepped approach; so even if pure ICE powered cars are no more allowed to sell, at least in an interim period of several years, it will be allowed to sell “hybrid” powered vehicles with a maxiumum emission level. This should also be possible to achieve with some form of M139 derived power train.

 

[GetawayDriving]

Great discussion! Thanks for all the reply's and input!

I'm thinking that the EV may be similar to the Compact Disc (CD) in its adoption and production life. Highly praised in the initial adoption, yet shorted lived once we learned more about it's "short comings & dirty laundry", and final death with the introduction of better alternatives.

EV do not reduce pollution or carbon emissions, they just export it to a different location. Unless you are charging your EV with 100% Wind, Solar or Nuclear power, you are not reducing any carbon emissions, and that's beyond the whole Battery Production Carbon Emissions debate.

Yet beyond the carbon emissions discussion, the issue that will put a major "dent" in the EV life span will be Battery Life. Once folks realize that their EV is worth $25-40K less after 6 years because it's battery only holds 50% of it's original range and needs replacement, they will be less inclined to buy another. And the market place will shun used EV's.

My neighbor is a big Tesla Fan, and has owned 5 over the years. He buys new and sells after 2 to 3 years so he does not have to deal with the "used Battery Issues" as He puts it.

I hope that Lotus will continue to produce the Emira or it's future iterations if demand for an ICE sports car continues past it's currently planned sunset (2027 ??).

Exporting carbon to a different location is not 1:1. Yes, you're moving the burning of fossil fuel from your car's engine to a power plant (assuming you're not getting that energy from a green source) but it's much more efficient for that power plant to create that power than thousands of individual vehicles. Factor in the grid getting greener over time and that EV you bought today is getting better for the planet the longer it remains in service (whether the original buyer owns it or not).

EVs do not lose 50% of their range in 6 years. (Some Nissan Leaf excluded, but they're an anomaly thanks to passive cooling in places with extreme temps). For EVs that are not Leafs in Arizona, it's more like 10%. That's not dissimilar from the efficiency loss of a gasoline vehicle over the same amount of time, the difference is that charging takes longer so that loss is noticed. This is why it's important to buy an EV that fits your life, or not at all. 100% agree that people need to understand this or they will get frustrated and move back to ICE.

Used battery issues are not the problem your neighbor thinks. Everyone has strong opinions about Tesla, so let's look at something else. The Prius is one of the most reliable cars on the road. Those batteries can go hundreds of thousands of miles before needing "rebalancing" but even that doesn't routinely require battery replacement. The bigger issue with EV batteries today is the same issue the Emira has: new product growing pains. The industry is chasing more efficiency, better more friendly material chemistries and recycling and all of that is leading to rapid innovation. In that process, some units will fail. It's not a terribly common problem actually, but it's possible. Soon this will get mature and when that happens, there's nothing stopping EVs from being million-mile drivetrains.

In the meantime, yeah EVs may depreciate and that's a risk someone will take. Hasn't stopped people from buying Audis. As the tech matures and the range becomes more universal in its appeal (400-500 miles) the values will stabilize.

Edit: Worth noting that in the US, EVs are federally mandated to offer a battery warranty for 8 years / 100,000 miles. These warranties guarantee that the battery will retain 70% of its original capacity. So nobody should be selling their EV in 6 years expecting battery replacement unless they're already over 100,000 miles, and if that's the case show me an ICE vehicle with 100k+ miles that hasn't lost 50% of its value. If an EV loses that much range in that amount of time it'll be a simple warranty swap. 70% degradation is a worst-case scenario, real data from the oldest cars we can look at (early Model S mostly) is showing losses closer to 10%. Some owners reporting as low as 6% after 9 years.

 

[981KMAN]

..........
EVs do not lose 50% of their range in 6 years........

.......... Worth noting that in the US, EVs are federally mandated to offer a battery warranty for 8 years / 100,000 miles. These warranties guarantee that the battery will retain 70% of its original capacity. So nobody should be selling their EV in 6 years expecting battery replacement unless they're already over 100,000 miles, and if that's the case show me an ICE vehicle with 100k+ miles that hasn't lost 50% of its value. If an EV loses that much range in that amount of time it'll be a simple warranty swap. 70% degradation is a worst-case scenario, real data from the oldest cars we can look at (early Model S mostly) is showing losses closer to 10%. Some owners reporting as low as 6% after 9 years.

Thanks for your insight. Can you sight the US Federal Warranty Regs on EV batteries, specifically the Degradation Limit of 70%. I've founds lots of info on the "8 years / 100K miles", yet that seems to only be for complete battery failure, and does not state any degradation limit. I would like to be more informed when I discuss this stuff with my Telsa neighbor, as his experience has him selling his cars after a few years. Maybe he has some type of warranty claim with Telsa? Or is this Federal requirement something new for 2023 models?

Thanks!!