How bad will the Emira depreciation be?

[goto35]

debating i should cancel my fe order.
$110 with tax is alot of money

 

[Citizen]

Cancel and buy a classic car for that

But don’t drive it , keep it at the garage and maybe in 10 years your 110k will be the same price. , not counting inflation

 

[Pegasi]

You can wait for the used market for Emiras.

 

[TomE]

Now that the speculation about flippers, overs and supply shortages has gone away, I expect it’ll depreciate like any other Lotus.

I reckon it will drop 15-20% when you drive it away from the dealer and down to 50-60% of list price by end of year 3, then very slow after that.

 

[meccanisti]

No worse than any other 2 seat sports car. I don’t think it will be quite 50% after three years but it won’t be that far off.

 

[JimH]

Now that the speculation about flippers, overs and supply shortages has gone away, I expect it’ll depreciate like any other Lotus.

I reckon it will drop 15-20% when you drive it away from the dealer and down to 50-60% of list price by end of year 3, then very slow after that.

Hopefully around that at worst - my "new" (3 months/250 miles) ex-demo V6 FE Auto will have done 14% already (at someone else's cost) if you take current list price with OTR costs, including 1st Year Road Fund Licence) vs. what I'm paying on collection on Wednesday.......

 

[Porter]

Now that the speculation about flippers, overs and supply shortages has gone away, I expect it’ll depreciate like any other Lotus.

I reckon it will drop 15-20% when you drive it away from the dealer and down to 50-60% of list price by end of year 3, then very slow after that.

That may be true in the UK but not necessarily so in other markets. The Evora for example has held very strong in the US except for the very early non-SC cars. So have the Elise and Exige here, which have already increased well above original sale price and the last versions very steeply above.

 

[Hell4Leather]

Now that the speculation about flippers, overs and supply shortages has gone away, I expect it’ll depreciate like any other Lotus.

I reckon it will drop 15-20% when you drive it away from the dealer and down to 50-60% of list price by end of year 3, then very slow after that.

50-60% at year 10 maybe. Look at the price for an Evora GT. My money says 10% year 1, then 5% after until 1/2 MSRP.

 

[Nova]

The last car I owned that was a somewhat exotic brand that made a mass market push lost value significantly. I sold the car after 6 years for about 30% of its original cost. Market dynamics, you just can't predict. I thoroughly enjoyed owning the car and would do it again in a heartbeat if I knew what was ahead.

Will Lotus flood the market with discounts as they are pushed to deliver volume?
Will there be a continued stream of positive reviews and rankings that keep the Emira desirable?

For me, the resale value of a car like Lotus Emira matters little. If your finances are going to be put out if the car is only worth 50% after 3 years, then it's probably not the right choice for a rational, reasonable, and considered purchase.

 

[DF_Toronto]

Now that the speculation about flippers, overs and supply shortages has gone away, I expect it’ll depreciate like any other Lotus.

I reckon it will drop 15-20% when you drive it away from the dealer and down to 50-60% of list price by end of year 3, then very slow after that.

50% sounds like way too much after 3-years. I think there’s a new factor today that will make it impossible to compare to historical values and that is the fact that there are no “newer model” ICE cars to buy. I’ve spent the last few years believing that will be good for value, but I’m starting to think it could go either way in the SHORT term. As EVs improve and infrastructure expands people may use their dollars that way vs buying an ”ICE TOY”, especially petrol-heads who already have one but don’t have an EV. Over time the finite supply of truly engaging ICE cars available will lead to appreciation. Thoughts?

 

[EspritGuy]

50% sounds like way too much after 3-years. I think there’s a new factor today that will make it impossible to compare to historical values and that is the fact that there are no “newer model” ICE cars to buy. I’ve spent the last few years believing that will be good for value, but I’m starting to think it could go either way in the SHORT term. As EVs improve and infrastructure expands people may use their dollars that way vs buying an ”ICE TOY”, especially petrol-heads who already have one but don’t have an EV. Over time the finite supply of truly engaging ICE cars available will lead to appreciation. Thoughts?

These various guesstimates are intriguing.
Yes depreciation is a thing, but so is inflation.
Yes sportscar sector is shrinking but so is supply
Yes fuel regulations will tighten and costs rise
Yes ICE cars will be pushed aside by EVs
Fun cars will have a special significance
Best-of-breed will always be valued
What this is worth to you exceeds other opinions.

 

[idleuser]

You're in the US. Deprecation for sports cars ranging from 50-100k is pretty low. You still can't get a used GT4, supra, nissian z, integra type s, civic type r, GR corolla, bmw m4/m3 without any markups. If you look in the used market, the prices are still pretty close to msrp or higher.

 

[Gprodigy]

For perspective, They SHoullddd hold better than corvette's(which are doing well w/ several variants.)
The BMW I8 and Maserati situation were anomalies.

I predict Automatics will depreciate more than Manual gearbox's:
Used Ferrari's or LP Lambo's cost $100k more in manual, than their automatic counterparts.

If canceling to get a used classic exotic, it is possible to sale for the same price or more 3 years later.( I've experienced this.)
The major risk to that is lack of warranty. You will have to maintain/fix the car yourself as much as possible for best ROI.

 

[Cachaco131]

Cancel and buy a classic car for that

But don’t drive it , keep it at the garage and maybe in 10 years your 110k will be the same price. , not counting inflation

This +100.

 

[Climber]

50% sounds like way too much after 3-years. I think there’s a new factor today that will make it impossible to compare to historical values and that is the fact that there are no “newer model” ICE cars to buy. I’ve spent the last few years believing that will be good for value, but I’m starting to think it could go either way in the SHORT term. As EVs improve and infrastructure expands people may use their dollars that way vs buying an ”ICE TOY”, especially petrol-heads who already have one but don’t have an EV. Over time the finite supply of truly engaging ICE cars available will lead to appreciation. Thoughts?

Porsche’s don’t depreciate much, and limited models sometimes don’t deprecate at all the spider & GT4, targa.
Presently NA market is sitting on 2 years of orders, assume that 30% will drop out that is still a health demand.
I believe it will lose some after a year, but for the first 700 units sold at the original price they may not deprecate for 18 months when lotus production catches up. If quantity improves and demand continues… prices may not drop significantly at all.. remember they are planning on building this model for 4-5 years. This may end up being a collector car from the start… I don’t think. There’s much money to be had in reselling a new car because the wait isn’t forever and people who order a car will eventually get one…
On the flip side you don’t buy a car a financial instrument.. you are buy a toy to enjoy and put a smile on your face.
Personally if the emira is reasonably reliable I will keep mine more than 10 years or till it becomes difficult to service…

 

[Stiffarm]

50-60% at year 10 maybe. Look at the price for an Evora GT. My money says 10% year 1, then 5% after until 1/2 MSRP.

I disagree--at year 10, with no other ICE sports car available in the US (if the left has their way), a manual Emira will command a strong price at or more than the MSRP. So will the flap paddles, but less. These are the last of their type.

 

[MYFASTEFE]

Im hoping is better than what the Evora has been. But this will be in my garage for a long time, i am totally ok with long term relationships, lol

 

[CHEESE]

Probably an unpopular opinion, but if you're worried about the sale of a "fun" car before you even buy, it's probably not the car for you.

 

[Nova]

Probably an unpopular opinion, but if you're worried about the sale of a "fun" car before you even buy, it's probably not the car for you.

It's definitely a calculation for some people. The market for desirable/exotic/low-production vehicles is such that some people can enjoy a wide variety of cars at a relatively low cost (aside from transaction costs). These people are really only interested in cars that have a healthy resale value by the time they move on to their next fling.

I did this with cameras and lenses for a while. I've had some really good Canon glass move through my hands in this way. That said, it's difficult to develop true familiarity/proficiency constantly switching lenses like this.

So I certainly understand the mentality, but you are right, Lotus may not be a good fit for this strategy.

 

[fast_driver]

Depreciation will be bad initially especially with all the people dropping their orders like flies. Give it a few years and this thing will come back like a raging train. No more manual gearbox and all steering gone electric, or cars have gone electric for that matter. These cars will be so highly sought after that everyone who refunded their deposit will regret