How bad will the Emira depreciation be?

[boisecrawfords]

I'll throw my vote out there on this topic, from the US:

Core economics is a supply/demand curve. When supply decreases, demand increases. Therefore I don't agree with others on this thread that there will be a plethora of them on the used market in 2024. I think there will continue to be supply shortages at least through 2024 as Lotus tries to fill orders and production demand. Yes I know orders have been cancelled, but there is still a significant backlog for any new orders.

For example, when the C8 launched the backlog was about a year from time of order and they were regularly selling for $30-$50k over invoice on the secondary market. For some weird reason some are still selling over invoice on the secondary market. I don't expect Emiras to have this high of a swing because frankly the value isn't there and the starting price is about $35k higher.

My prediction is that Emiras will draw $110k-$130k on the secondary market through 2024, then slowly slide to retail or minus 5% in 2025, depending on production volume. If they follow McLaren and build a ton then values will fall faster; if they follow Ferrari's "We will always build one less than the demand" philosophy then prices will stay elevated.

 

[Lotustoronto]

I'll throw my vote out there on this topic, from the US:

Core economics is a supply/demand curve. When supply decreases, demand increases. Therefore I don't agree with others on this thread that there will be a plethora of them on the used market in 2024. I think there will continue to be supply shortages at least through 2024 as Lotus tries to fill orders and production demand. Yes I know orders have been cancelled, but there is still a significant backlog for any new orders.

For example, when the C8 launched the backlog was about a year from time of order and they were regularly selling for $30-$50k over invoice on the secondary market. For some weird reason some are still selling over invoice on the secondary market. I don't expect Emiras to have this high of a swing because frankly the value isn't there and the starting price is about $35k higher.

My prediction is that Emiras will draw $110k-$130k on the secondary market through 2024, then slowly slide to retail or minus 5% in 2025, depending on production volume. If they follow McLaren and build a ton then values will fall faster; if they follow Ferrari's "We will always build one less than the demand" philosophy then prices will stay elevated.

I will be absolutely shocked if any Emira sells for over MSRP in the US. Taking any example of car pricing from 2020-2023 (mid) would be a dangerous metric. COVID is over, interest rates are not zero and Lotus is facing an uphill battle against other "pre-owned" models.

We also said the Emira can not compete against a GT4 because it is priced against the GTS.... Well if you look on auto trader there are 60+ GT4's for sale starting at 118K.... Factor in Emira's Delivery costs and you know have to choose between a nice pre-owned GT4 and an Emira. This is just one example and come mid 2024 we will be comparing 911 992's (CPO) vs a new Emira. Two years ago this was not possible. Time has not been kind for Lotus in this regard.

 

[EspritGuy]

The used market will be awash with them almost immediately... or wait a year (which in Lotus terms is nothing) and pick up a 'used' bargain with 1.5k miles on the clock and one boring owner who has finished having his mid-life crisis.

Thanks to modern science, I think the lifespan of the ordinary mid-life crisis has been lengthened. I have it on good authority my behavior is quite inappropriate for my age.

 

[Finbarqs]

We know that supply will be limited… but that’s assuming the demand will match it. Plus… manuals are dying, and if you ask anyone from the next generation, the majority has no desire to “learn” a manual. Plus they’re mostly Gung-Ho on EV’s. Best bet is to sell it to old millennials, or millennials like us, unless the car gets induced into the hall of fame…

 

[Porter]

I don't know why the number of Emiras available on the used market in the UK keeps coming up as though it's relevant for any other market. The UK economy been in a tough situation for the last year and a half in ways that are not at all true in the US, despite inflation making some consumer goods elevated compared to historic trend.

But the UK has a completely different set of challenges, and the relative affordability of this car shifted pretty significantly with interest rates in that market due to the way they structure auto finance.

We very well may end up seeing a scenario where there are bunch of used Emiras sitting unbought in the UK, while other markets have high demand and long waits for inventory, with used units only appearing periodically and not for long.

 

[Finbarqs]

We will see in NA if it’s true: if there are a lot of cancelled pre-orders then there will be a handful of pre-configured emira's sitting on the lot. If that happens, and nobody bites, then we have an idea of what the depreciating value would be (to me, depreciation value is what average price sold that is below the price you have purchased it at, fees, taxes, etc included) so let’s see who has the correct crystal ball!

 

[Porter]

We will see in NA if it’s true: if there are a lot of cancelled pre-orders then there will be a handful of pre-configured emira's sitting on the lot. If that happens, and nobody bites, then we have an idea of what the depreciating value would be (to me, depreciation value is what average price sold that is below the price you have purchased it at, fees, taxes, etc included) so let’s see who has the correct crystal ball!

Emiras sitting on lots in the United States without buyers is not a scenario that I think is even remotely plausible in the next several years at minimum. So yes, we will see whose crystal ball is functioning.

 

[Finbarqs]

I’m hoping that it will not be bad, but hey the saying goes; hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I have a base edition pre ordered with Naples, and thank goodness no ADM.

But my dilemma is my Elise… plan was to sell the Elise for the Emira. Now… it would seem the Elise is more likely to go up in value than the Emira… (especially when you have an original one that’s 15k on the ODO)

Do the adult thing? Or hopefully my biz sees a surge in the next few months haha

 

[MajHall04]

Emiras sitting on lots in the United States without buyers is not a scenario that I think is even remotely plausible in the next several years at minimum. So yes, we will see whose crystal ball is functioning.

I hope you are correct but world events may dictate the opposite.

 

[EyeFour Eemeerah!]

Depends on the time frame? I would image an initial dip when used cars are available, but the limited number of cars and the unique features (ICE, manual, etc.) will likely push the price up of the next 20 years until they are right back to purchase price or higher.

2007 Corvette, Elise, and Cayman were all about $50K (options dependent and the Porsche was in the upper 50's). Now clean low mileage examples...
Corvettes = $20K's
Cayman = $30K's
Elise = 30-40K's

Or…the Emira may turn out to be Lotus’ Edsel of the 21st century. By their own hand of course.

 

[Nova]

I don't know why the number of Emiras available on the used market in the UK keeps coming up as though it's relevant for any other market. The UK economy been in a tough situation for the last year and a half in ways that are not at all true in the US, despite inflation making some consumer goods elevated compared to historic trend.

But the UK has a completely different set of challenges, and the relative affordability of this car shifted pretty significantly with interest rates in that market due to the way they structure auto finance.

We very well may end up seeing a scenario where there are bunch of used Emiras sitting unbought in the UK, while other markets have high demand and long waits for inventory, with used units only appearing periodically and not for long.

I guess I would plead general ignorance on the mentality of UK consumers. However, from a purely practical standpoint, it's reasonable for someone in the UK to consider that most of these used vehicles on the market were earlier production samples so they are apprehensive about picking them up. People are probably holding out for more recent production with the hopes of having less rough edges. I would wager that the earlier cars would always be slightly less desirable. Couple this with the fact that UK has probably seen the most supply of cars of any market.

 

[ADC]

I don't know why the number of Emiras available on the used market in the UK keeps coming up as though it's relevant for any other market. The UK economy been in a tough situation for the last year and a half in ways that are not at all true in the US, despite inflation making some consumer goods elevated compared to historic trend.

But the UK has a completely different set of challenges, and the relative affordability of this car shifted pretty significantly with interest rates in that market due to the way they structure auto finance.

We very well may end up seeing a scenario where there are bunch of used Emiras sitting unbought in the UK, while other markets have high demand and long waits for inventory, with used units only appearing periodically and not for long.

I guess I would plead general ignorance on the mentality of UK consumers. However, from a purely practical standpoint, it's reasonable for someone in the UK to consider that most of these used vehicles on the market were earlier production samples so they are apprehensive about picking them up. People are probably holding out for more recent production with the hopes of having less rough edges. I would wager that the earlier cars would always be slightly less desirable. Couple this with the fact that UK has probably seen the most supply of cars of any market.

Speaking from my own (probably still ignorant) point of view, I think you're both on the money here... a little from column A, a little from column B.

The shift in prices, delivery dates, and interest rates has almost certainly played havoc with demand over here, and I personally opted to wait my turn rather than pick up a "used" example for exactly the reason you mention @Nova

As for depreciation... meh. I'm walking into this one with the mentality it is a keeper, and I'll get my money's worth amortised over a decade or more... I mean, I've had my current car for 12 years, and it is not anywhere near as special

 

[meenboli]

The last car I owned that was a somewhat exotic brand that made a mass market push lost value significantly. I sold the car after 6 years for about 30% of its original cost. Market dynamics, you just can't predict. I thoroughly enjoyed owning the car and would do it again in a heartbeat if I knew what was ahead.

Will Lotus flood the market with discounts as they are pushed to deliver volume?
Will there be a continued stream of positive reviews and rankings that keep the Emira desirable?

For me, the resale value of a car like Lotus Emira matters little. If your finances are going to be put out if the car is only worth 50% after 3 years, then it's probably not the right choice for a rational, reasonable, and considered purchase.

Shall we just say the word 'Maserati' and move on...

 

[seriously]

I will be absolutely shocked if any Emira sells for over MSRP in the US. Taking any example of car pricing from 2020-2023 (mid) would be a dangerous metric. COVID is over, interest rates are not zero and Lotus is facing an uphill battle against other "pre-owned" models.

We also said the Emira can not compete against a GT4 because it is priced against the GTS.... Well if you look on auto trader there are 60+ GT4's for sale starting at 118K.... Factor in Emira's Delivery costs and you know have to choose between a nice pre-owned GT4 and an Emira. This is just one example and come mid 2024 we will be comparing 911 992's (CPO) vs a new Emira. Two years ago this was not possible. Time has not been kind for Lotus in this regard.

Agree with the notion that a delayed rollout means more competition from used cars esp at the 100k mark and new incoming electric sportscars. One YouTuber said this car could have come out 5 years ago. IT SHOULD have come out 5 years ago. It would have been such a boost to the Lotus brand and even more compelling as new Ferraris were being rolled out at much higher costs and too much power to enjoy.

I don’t know that many will sit on lots, but I do think the pipeline is thinning out. There were FE build slots available not too long ago and that seems odd. This car will have to prove itself in the real world to generate strong sales. Can’t rely on hype now that the rollout has been such a cluster that many canceled.

 

[Lotustoronto]

I also don't think the Emira will be sitting on dealers lots, but getting above MSRP might be a bit difficult. I only say this because I no longer have the impression that by next summer the wait will not be very long to order a new one.

** Caveat to this would be a LARGE price increase to the base model / options. If that happens then perhaps. But doubtful that will be the case.

 

[Lotus64]

Used sports car prices in the US are insane. Most makers have left the ICE sports car market resulting in the supply declining at a rate much faster than demand.

The Emira's low production volume and the elevated used pricing of Evoras, Esprits and exiges currently on sale bodes well for the Emira's depreciation. It's a future classic.

If the Emira remains sold out at full production, volumes will remain comparatively low. And if it sits on lots, production will be cut. Either way, the supply will remain restricted (in US).

 

[EspritGuy]

I also don't think the Emira will be sitting on dealers lots, but getting above MSRP might be a bit difficult. I only say this because I no longer have the impression that by next summer the wait will not be very long to order a new one.

** Caveat to this would be a LARGE price increase to the base model / options. If that happens then perhaps. But doubtful that will be the case.

So much conjecture on all fronts!
NA cars arriving full on in 1Q will spur more deposits and require more dealer allocations. I think the i4 performance needs to be better sorted to raise its appeal.
Base pricing could either inhibit or stimulate further interest.
Lotus is constrained to about 4800 (or up to 6000) units per year across all regions.
Not thinking this is a build-on-demand scenario anytime soon. Keep seeing posts an order placed today is a 12-18 month wait at present popularity.
Production volume vs allocation equals a different type of 'soon.'

 

[Lotustoronto]

So much conjecture on all fronts!
NA cars arriving full on in 1Q will spur more deposits and require more dealer allocations. I think the i4 performance needs to be better sorted to raise its appeal.
Base pricing could either inhibit or stimulate further interest.
Lotus is constrained to about 4800 (or up to 6000) units per year across all regions.
Not thinking this is a build-on-demand scenario anytime soon. Keep seeing posts an order placed today is a 12-18 month wait at present popularity.
Production volume vs allocation equals a different type of 'soon.'

This whole forum and most forums are based on conjecture. I base my information on sales data of the competition in this price point and a healthy dose of speculation , mixed in with what I hear from multiple sources in the auto industry. While Lotus is limited in capacity, I think comparing previous 718 sales would give a good idea of how many Emira's Lotus could potentially sell in the US.... Below is Porsche 718 total USA sales. It would be a VERY impressive, and almost unrealistic to even hit 50% of these numbers YOY consistently. Just comparing the number of Porsche dealers alone and their market share with the fact that 718's also offer a convertible option and a much lower starting price point for 4cyl models. (70K starting) Not to mention they were the ONLY mid-engine manual on sale (excluding the C7 until 2020 and the Evora 2021)

As another data point - you can see EU 718 Porsche sales. We do know that the European market has a healthy amount of V6 cars for sale and maybe delivered 800-1000 EU cars so far. (at most) Nowhere near the 5K Porsche did in 718's in 2022 obviosuly. These are all just data points, but effective ones to predict the market appetite for a mid engine manual ICE car.

BTW these number include Boxster (convertible) and Cayman. Which skews the sales even further away from the Emira. (no convertible option)

 

[Gprodigy]

[What the heck thumbnail ]the Fe 1.0 need to hurry up and arrive in NA. It’s hard to believe this car fully loaded will drop $30k in a year over here.
Is this happening in other areas like Australia, china, Japan?

 

[Nova]

[What the heck thumbnail ]the Fe 1.0 need to hurry up and arrive in NA. It’s hard to believe this car fully loaded will drop $30k in a year over here.
Is this happening in other areas like Australia, china, Japan?

This video could have been 3 minutes long and had the same amount of content.

The sky is blue, which is a blue shade, which I can see why my eyes that it's blue, because it looks blue, and so it is blue, the sky that is, just blue you know. Subscribe if you want more content like this. Now back to the sky being blue…

Edit: I don't believe the Emira will be down 30k in a year unless the economy crashes like it did in 2008.