Interesting Article on the Cost of the Electric Future

[Eagle7]

Here's an interesting article that discusses the cost of the electric future, and how states in the U.S. are planning on adding taxes and fees to make up for the loss of revenue from reduced gas sales.

Think Driving Electric Is Cheaper Than Gas? Hybrid, Electric Car Owners Nationwide Facing New Taxes

Who knew?

thefederalistpapers.org

 

[Eagle7]

The Federalist is just a propaganda website.

What media outlet isn't? The article is a link from The Western Journal. Try reading it, there's a lot of interesting info in there.

 

[~el~jefe~]

There is absolutely no savings whatsoever with buying an electric vehicle. unless you are in a socialist country where you are ripped off in every direction and the economy and value of items is fictional and controlled. They will artificially make it cheaper via domination and control.
lithium ion batteries is a stupid method for transportation. Hydrogen fuel cell makes more sense if there was not propaganda against it

 

[dgrace]

Presumably there is a more appropriate forum for this discussion, as it has nothing to do with the Emira.

 

[NicolasB]

I never said vaccines are a joke....furthest from the truth..... quite opposite they are quite dangerous !!

BTW, since you are from NY, I am sure that you also knew that the air downtown NYC was perfectly safe to breath in after the 9/11 twin towers collapse......because the government ( Environmental Protection Agency) pronounced such ADAMENTLY after 9/11.

View attachment 5095

meanwhile ...........
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Lets see how this Covid vaccine situation pans out......

BEST WISHES !!!

MAKE SURE YOU ALWAYS WEAR YOUR INEFFECTIVE MASK

I live in NY, yes, but when I look out my window, I see Canada across a river a mile wide, so not too worried about NYC.

 

[Eagle7]

Presumably there is a more appropriate forum for this discussion, as it has nothing to do with the Emira.

Well considering Lotus is going all electric and either that includes the Emira at some point, or the sports car replacing it (Type 135?) will be electric, I thought it was relevant. If governments are waiting to start adding extra fees and taxes to electric vehicles, that will have an impact on electric vehicle sales which would impact Lotus. This is coming regardless of the Emira.

There's also the comment by Ford's EV CEO, RJ Scaringe: "Put very simply, all the world's [battery] cell production combined represents well under 10% of what we will need in 10 years." That's critical. In the last 12 months the cost of lithium which is used in EV batteries has increased by 470%. That will be passed onto the price of the vehicles, and have an impact on existing owners when it comes time to replace their batteries.

What this indicates to me is, there may be a change of course in the next 10 years as it becomes apparent that laws forcing everything to go all-electric may not only be impossible to accommodate, but have a very negative economic effect. Unless they find new sources for some of these critical elements (which involves mining, a notoriously non-green activity) or come up with better battery technology, I'm guessing fossil fuels may be around a lot longer than some people currently think.

 

[digilotus]

I'm hoping that Hydrogen cars become the future displacing ICE gas guzzlers. That will keep the engine sounds we love whilst keeping things clean.

 

[Green]

Similar pushback when they tried to replace the horse and buggy

 

[frazzer]

I have an i3s and a free charging point not far from me, so for now I'm paying 0p/mi to run it!

 

[Eagle7]

I'm hoping that Hydrogen cars become the future displacing ICE gas guzzlers. That will keep the engine sounds we love whilst keeping things clean.

Yes, unfortunately that resource has to overcome the stigma created by the Hindenburg disaster, which won't be easy. There were other mitigating factors in that tragedy that wouldn't be involved in using it as a fuel source today.

 

[Singularity]

Yes, unfortunately that resource has to overcome the stigma created by the Hindenburg disaster, which won't be easy. There were other mitigating factors in that tragedy that wouldn't be involved in using it as a fuel source today.

In the UK the use of hydrogen for cars has all but disappeared under the juggernaut of a push for batteries - without any credible consideration of the lifetime eco-impact.

However, on the plus side there’s still work ongoing looking at the use of hydrogen in commercial applications including trucks, trains, coaches, etc. Unless there’s some miracle step change in battery technology (even beyond the migration to solid state) there’s an acknowledgement batteries just won’t cut it for very long distance, large power draw applications.

Trials have also started with blending hydrogen into the natural gas supplies for homes and modern, current domestic boilers can accept a proportion of the feed as hydrogen, with nothing more than slight adjustment. Future domestic boilers might have the capability to switch to pure hydrogen feed.

So the prospect of a hydrogen fuelled economy isn’t dead; just comatose for domestic cars.

 

[frazzer]

In the UK the use of hydrogen for cars has all but disappeared under the juggernaut of a push for batteries - without any credible consideration of the lifetime eco-impact.

However, on the plus side there’s still work ongoing looking at the use of hydrogen in commercial applications including trucks, trains, coaches, etc. Unless there’s some miracle step change in battery technology (even beyond the migration to solid state) there’s an acknowledgement batteries just won’t cut it for very long distance, large power draw applications.

Trials have also started with blending hydrogen into the natural gas supplies for homes and modern, current domestic boilers can accept a proportion of the feed as hydrogen, with nothing more than slight adjustment. Future domestic boilers might have the capability to switch to pure hydrogen feed.

So the prospect of a hydrogen fuelled economy isn’t dead; just comatose for domestic cars.

for industrial applications the main issue with batteries is charging time, that down time is logistically problematic. Also you might not have adequate power on-site in a lot of applications, whereas other fuels are potentially portable. It does seem hydrogen has a future for commercial vehicles.

 

[~el~jefe~]

Similar pushback when they tried to replace the horse and buggy

battery operated cars were replaced by gasoline powered cars.
the exact same conclusions 100 years ago are valid today about their uses and failures to be viable.

 

[~el~jefe~]

hydrogen is the best way forward. It also has limitless tech improvements. Lithium batteries are finite in their ability that was explored decades ago (or with a simple calculator and 1st year chemistry)

 

[FederGigant]

There are two questions I have to ask after reading this:

1. Do you all know that hydrogen cars are also electric cars with electric motors and a lithium ion battery? The battery is just way smaller than in a pure EV, because you can generate your own electricity with the hydrogen.

2. Do you all know that you need electricity to generate hydrogen in the first place and that it is about three times more efficient to use this energy directly to drive an electric car, because you don‘t have to go the route of converting from electricity to hydrogen to electricity?

The one big problem is storing the electricity. Hydrogen is just another way to store it, however one with at least as many downsides as lithium ion batteries.

 

[digilotus]

There are two questions I have to ask after reading this:

1. Do you all know that hydrogen cars are also electric cars with electric motors and a lithium ion battery? The battery is just way smaller than in a pure EV, because you can generate your own electricity with the hydrogen.

2. Do you all know that you need electricity to generate hydrogen in the first place and that it is about three times more efficient to use this energy directly to drive an electric car, because you don‘t have to go the route of converting from electricity to hydrogen to electricity?

The one big problem is storing the electricity. Hydrogen is just another way to store it, however one with at least as many downsides as lithium ion batteries.

Yes but that's only half the story. There are two forms of Hydrogen powered vehicles:

1) Hydrogen-powered Fuel Cell EVs (FCEVs) - Where hydrogen is used to create electricity via an electrochemial reaction. The generated electricity is subsequently stored in batteries and used to power electric motors just like an EV.

2) Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (HICEVs) - Which are modified internal combustion engines that use liquid hydrogen for fuel instead of gasoline.

Wouldn't it be awesome to have a HICEV powered Emira or Type 135? All the noise without the CO2 and without need for a particulate filter!

 

[Singularity]

Yes but that's only half the story. There are two forms of Hydrogen powered vehicles:

1) Hydrogen-powered Fuel Cell EVs (FCEVs) - Where hydrogen is used to create electricity via an electrochemial reaction. The generated electricity is subsequently stored in batteries and used to power electric motors just like an EV.

2) Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (HICEVs) - Which are modified internal combustion engines that use liquid hydrogen for fuel instead of gasoline.

Wouldn't it be awesome to have a HICEV powered Emira or Type 135? All the noise without the CO2 and without need for a particulate filter!

I agree with @digilotus and to answer the efficiency point …..

I agree batteries are generally more ‘efficient’ that cracking hydrogen and then burning it - with any thermal engine the laws of thermodynamics (Carnot cycle) will limit the efficiency. The same applies to actually generating electricity using thermal power in the first place.

However, the key issue I think is not necessarily efficiency but one of overall environmental impact and that’s actually really hard to figure out. I’m sure folks would agree that hydrogen is pretty darn abundant as water so let’s ignore any H2 ‘resource’ issues - especially since burning it just makes water again. Also, since we don’t have a H2 economy yet let’s also set aside the practical issues of bulk storage, distribution and supply of hydrogen which would admittedly require huge investment.

So the environmental balance is

- the environmental cost of producing hydrogen (typically by cracking water and there’s various ways of doing that)
vs
- the environmental cost of making batteries PLUS the environmental impact of producing the electricity to charge them with when driving

If you have a surplus of renewable energy then producing hydrogen becomes quite cheap and has minimal environmental footprint, so if energy is lost in the production / distribution / use cycle it doesn’t matter. However, if you don’t have plentiful renewable energy, then producing hydrogen is not so good.

Batteries (at least current technology) use rare earth metals that have to be mined and have a finite supply. There are other technologies like supercapacitors and next gen batteries but they are quite a way off commercial viability yet (AFAIK - it’s quite commercially sensitive!). Also, recycling of batteries has yet to properly get going so there’s still a question mark over how many times the base materials of a battery can be recycled into new batteries. Plenty of research and development is going into it but there’s no definitive answer yet. The generating electricity bit is the same as for hydrogen, but since you lose less the generation / distribution / use cycle is more efficient.

So in my mind if you have lots of renewable energy available then hydrogen is good, if you don’t then it‘s a balance between the environmental impact of a battery lifecycle vs the efficiency gains by direct power storage in a battery.

Sorry this is a bit long winded but as with many things in life, nothing is simple!

 

[FederGigant]

Yes but that's only half the story. There are two forms of Hydrogen powered vehicles:

1) Hydrogen-powered Fuel Cell EVs (FCEVs) - Where hydrogen is used to create electricity via an electrochemial reaction. The generated electricity is subsequently stored in batteries and used to power electric motors just like an EV.

2) Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (HICEVs) - Which are modified internal combustion engines that use liquid hydrogen for fuel instead of gasoline.

Wouldn't it be awesome to have a HICEV powered Emira or Type 135? All the noise without the CO2 and without need for a particulate filter!

True of course, but I don‘t think that they will play any role in the car market, because it can‘t be a good idea to provide driving bombs to the crowds.

 

[FederGigant]

I agree with @digilotus and to answer the efficiency point …..

I agree batteries are generally more ‘efficient’ that cracking hydrogen and then burning it - with any thermal engine the laws of thermodynamics (Carnot cycle) will limit the efficiency. The same applies to actually generating electricity using thermal power in the first place.

However, the key issue I think is not necessarily efficiency but one of overall environmental impact and that’s actually really hard to figure out. I’m sure folks would agree that hydrogen is pretty darn abundant as water so let’s ignore any H2 ‘resource’ issues - especially since burning it just makes water again. Also, since we don’t have a H2 economy yet let’s also set aside the practical issues of bulk storage, distribution and supply of hydrogen which would admittedly require huge investment.

So the environmental balance is

- the environmental cost of producing hydrogen (typically by cracking water and there’s various ways of doing that)
vs
- the environmental cost of making batteries PLUS the environmental impact of producing the electricity to charge them with when driving

If you have a surplus of renewable energy then producing hydrogen becomes quite cheap and has minimal environmental footprint, so if energy is lost in the production / distribution / use cycle it doesn’t matter. However, if you don’t have plentiful renewable energy, then producing hydrogen is not so good.

Batteries (at least current technology) use rare earth metals that have to be mined and have a finite supply. There are other technologies like supercapacitors and next gen batteries but they are quite a way off commercial viability yet (AFAIK - it’s quite commercially sensitive!). Also, recycling of batteries has yet to properly get going so there’s still a question mark over how many times the base materials of a battery can be recycled into new batteries. Plenty of research and development is going into it but there’s no definitive answer yet. The generating electricity bit is the same as for hydrogen, but since you lose less the generation / distribution / use cycle is more efficient.

So in my mind if you have lots of renewable energy available then hydrogen is good, if you don’t then it‘s a balance between the environmental impact of a battery lifecycle vs the efficiency gains by direct power storage in a battery.

Sorry this is a bit long winded but as with many things in life, nothing is simple!

That‘s true of course. If there would be enough renewable energy, hydrogen would be a thing to consider. In that scenario we could also produce synthetic fuel with minimum environmental impact to drive our cars. However at the moment, we should try to be as efficient as possible with our resources.
Could you please explain, which rare earth metals are used in batteries? I‘m not a 100% aware of all the ingredients of a battery, but I know that rare earth metals are not rare in any way and I know, that lithium and cobalt are no rare earth metals, even if quite a few people think so.

 

[TomE]

I can’t find the article now, but I work in energy and commodities and there was an analysis recently of the mineral extraction requirements for EVs.

Assuming almost all new cars will require battery power in 10 years time, we need to dig up more stuff in the next 10 years than in the last 100.

The implications on land use, mining and processing globally (and the dangers of environmental impact) are enormous. Oil and gas extraction is far from benign, but EVs aren’t low impact.