How many is Lotus planning to produce?

[Shyatic]

I am just curious what the production numbers are looking like for Lotus' targets for the Emira?

For example, I think Chevy has a 40k number for the Corvette worldwide, any ideas for the Emira?

 

[Leonard]

I am just curious what the production numbers are looking like for Lotus' targets for the Emira?

For example, I think Chevy has a 40k number for the Corvette worldwide, any ideas for the Emira?

12k maybe?
Depends how far they continue production in certain regions past 2024/5

 

[Eagle7]

I think it also depends on the Type 135 and how people react to that. As far as performance goes, it's most likely going to smoke the Emira, but due to all the price increases, I'm expecting it to be pretty close to $100k if not over. Ford just announced a 17% increase in the cost of their EV truck, and I believe Tesla and others are having to increase their prices too. The cost of batteries is what's driving the increases.

If Lotus can keep producing the i4 Emira at a base price of somewhere in the £60k region, that should still be a popular seller.

 

[Shyatic]

I think it also depends on the Type 135 and how people react to that. As far as performance goes, it's most likely going to smoke the Emira, but due to all the price increases, I'm expecting it to be pretty close to $100k if not over. Ford just announced a 17% increase in the cost of their EV truck, and I believe Tesla and others are having to increase their prices too. The cost of batteries is what's driving the increases.

If Lotus can keep producing the i4 Emira at a base price of somewhere in the £60k region, that should still be a popular seller.

Yeah, the type 135 is electric so I don't want it (yet)... I want a manual car I can row the gears on, and this is the only car that fits the bill.

 

[Lotustoronto]

Yeah, the type 135 is electric so I don't want it (yet)... I want a manual car I can row the gears on, and this is the only car that fits the bill.

Me and @TomE did a previous build estimation. This is prior to the delays, and now Gator dealership has noted that N/A allocations for 2023 will be 1,900 cars ( including F/E, Base, i4) total.

I will revise my predicted numbers below for all Emira production worldwide;

2022 - 800 - All FE V6
2023 - 3,500 - FE V6 / Base V6 - 1,200 i4 - 4,700 total
2024- 3,500 - V6 Base - 3,000 i4 - 6,500 Total
2025 - 1,500 - V6 Final Edition / some base - 5,500 i4 ( I assume an i4 with more HP will be in production in 2025) - Maybe some type 135 electric? - 7,500 total
2026 - i4's + type 135 Electric - total ??

North America to receive 20%-30% of total production - So approx 5k-7K Emira's to the US market until 2025. After that no one knows if they will continue with the engine V6 or perhaps keep it for certain markets. (US)

Either way, the Emira will be a rare car in US/CAN. I personally believe that by the end of this year or early 2023 once delivery's and test drives are available that the V6 manual Emira will be sold out. I also believe that the i4 is going to get some seriously good review's and once that happens the order book for the i4's will grow very quickly, especially since it has a better price point. There has been many hints from Harris, Jenson Button, Catchpoole, Jethro and others that the i4 will be the one to have... they are all saying it for a reason, foreshadowing....

 

[Cachaco131]

Me and @TomE did a previous build estimation. This is prior to the delays, and now Gator dealership has noted that N/A allocations for 2023 will be 1,900 cars ( including F/E, Base, i4) total.

I will revise my predicted numbers below for all Emira production worldwide;

2022 - 800 - All FE V6
2023 - 3,500 - FE V6 / Base V6 - 1,200 i4 - 4,700 total
2024- 3,500 - V6 Base - 3,000 i4 - 6,500 Total
2025 - 1,500 - V6 Final Edition / some base - 5,500 i4 ( I assume an i4 with more HP will be in production in 2025) - Maybe some type 135 electric? - 7,500 total
2026 - i4's + type 135 Electric - total ??

North America to receive 20%-30% of total production - So approx 5k-7K Emira's to the US market until 2025. After that no one knows if they will continue with the engine V6 or perhaps keep it for certain markets. (US)

Either way, the Emira will be a rare car in US/CAN. I personally believe that by the end of this year or early 2023 once delivery's and test drives are available that the V6 manual Emira will be sold out. I also believe that the i4 is going to get some seriously good review's and once that happens the order book for the i4's will grow very quickly, especially since it has a better price point. There has been many hints from Harris, Jenson Button, Catchpoole, Jethro and others that the i4 will be the one to have... they are all saying it for a reason, foreshadowing....

No potential Emira S or GT in your estimates?

 

[Lotustoronto]

No potential Emira S or GT in your estimates?

It is in there... 2025 V6 final edition 1,500 units - My opinion will have 430 BHP and loose about 120 KG of weight. More track oriented.

Also think the i4's power in 2025 will be around 400BHP and become the new base spec Emira. Price increase of course. I also think that it will sell very very well at 400 BHP and a DCT. 2026-2030 i4's will surpass the 430 BHP and also be lighter than than the V6 GT/S/Final of 2025.

 

[mjw930]

The estimates are a good mind game but what we do know is the max that could be built assuming the logistics issues get sorted.

7500 / year without sub contracting someone to build chassis
10000 / year is max for the 2 shifts at the factory, assuming they sort the chassis issue.

Regarding production shifts, they will only have 2. Each team works 12 hour shifts Mon - Thur. Friday is reserved for catch up and maintenance. Accounting for state holidays, summer break, etc. and 1 car rolling of the line every 17 minutes is how they arrive at the 10,000 mark.

This information came directly from the tour guide on the factory tour in May.

 

[Lotustoronto]

The estimates are a good mind game but what we do know is the max that could be built assuming the logistics issues get sorted.

7500 / year without sub contracting someone to build chassis
10000 / year is max for the 2 shifts at the factory, assuming they sort the chassis issue.

Regarding production shifts, they will only have 2. Each team works 12 hour shifts Mon - Thur. Friday is reserved for catch up and maintenance. Accounting for state holidays, summer break, etc. and 1 car rolling of the line every 17 minutes is how they arrive at the 10,000 mark.

This information came directly from the tour guide on the factory tour in May.

This "new" Lotus team has not given me the confidence that they will be able to produce at Max production rate... Previously the factory produced it's best year of 1,700 or so cars... These numbers are MASSIVE compared to previous production. I know it's a new factory and process... All the more reason I believe it will take them some serious time to ramp up. To me this is more than a couple year process... Would be great for depositors if they could hit 10K cars by 2024.

 

[mjw930]

I’ve been to the factory, talked to some workers and supervisors and by modern car factory standards, one car off the line every 17 minutes is an order of magnitude slower than the mainstream factories. Everyone I spoke with was confident that if they had the parts they could achieve the 25 or so cars per day they need to build per shift to meet the current production expectation of 5000 / year. There is literally nothing but the walls that remain from how they used to manufacture cars @ Hethel. How many cars they made in the past is irrelevant.

Just for grins, take a guess what interval 2 series BMW’s, including M’s, come off that line? Remember, Lotus is targeting 17 minutes and spent £100,000,000 to get there.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
~32 seconds………

 

[Matt]

It depends on quantity of orders. Before the next gen full electric sports car, LOTUS will keep producing EMIRA.

 

[Eagle7]

The electric cars are going to be expensive. Because of its price point, I expect they'll keep producing the i4 Emira as long as they can.

 

[ksegg]

It's hilarious to me that to this day, there is STILL no confirmed figures for how many 2019-2021 M2 Competition's were actually made, with a breakdown of 6MT vs DCT.

I can understand not having fcomcrete figures for planned and current production......but for end of production.....how hard can it be?

 

[0pirates0]

i heard lotus had more than 12000 in general of the I4 model orders on hand now. The latest delivery of these I4 model is expected on late 2023 or early 2024 which indicates 10000 vehicles per year

 

[Scruff111S]

Does anybody know the current total of deposit holders, V6 and I4 combined.

 

[emiraspain]

I’ve been to the factory, talked to some workers and supervisors and by modern car factory standards, one car off the line every 17 minutes is an order of magnitude slower than the mainstream factories. Everyone I spoke with was confident that if they had the parts they could achieve the 25 or so cars per day they need to build per shift to meet the current production expectation of 5000 / year. There is literally nothing but the walls that remain from how they used to manufacture cars @ Hethel. How many cars they made in the past is irrelevant.

Just for grins, take a guess what interval 2 series BMW’s, including M’s, come off that line? Remember, Lotus is targeting 17 minutes and spent £100,000,000 to get there.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
~32 seconds………

Yes, you're correct, but its a bit of apples and oranges in the comparison, but as you say, interesting to see the comparison.....even though two quite different set ups and situations.
The truth is that in reality a 100 million investment in a factory to produce 5000 or more cars a year is small fry, Musk has probably thrown away more than that in a day at Tesla or TWITer investigations/law suit.
/
Along the same lines and out of interest, do you know how much BMW have invested in their Leipzig factory there....
lets look at it and you will see how the numbers stack up quite neatly in fact.

a. 17 mins = 1020 seconds.... for an Emira... a none "mass" produced car, in a 100 million factory, x employees..
b. 32 seconds = indeed 32 seconds for a 2 series.... very much mass produced.... huge number of employees

c. SO the maths say:
1020 / 32 = 31.8 BMW make their vehicles almost 32 times faster than Lotus, excellent numbers. But at what cost?
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Actually at least 3 Billion invested in their facility (euros of course) thats coincidently around (ignoring EURO conversion which works in Lotus's favor... ie cheating) 30 times more than Lotus have invested.
.
But if we allow for time, ie historical value of money, with 1 euro/pound 2/5/10 years ago being worth much much more than it is today, then its certain that the 3 billion BMW spent historically, in todays money, even in Euros, is far far more than 30 times that Lotus, or rather their parent company, have invested.
.

So, in reality, it all works out quite sensibly and I don't think Lotus's numbers are too bad?..... NOW what is bad are many other things but the potential production figures are the least of their concerns, the current concern is the lack of any production figures at all

 

[Lankan]

Interesting statistics but personally I prefer Lotus take their time and ensures each Emira that rolls off the production line is 'perfect' and is subject to the necessary QA procedures to ensure best possible fit and finish, both mechanically and cosmetically. From what Lotus have been saying, it seems that "getting it right" is high on their agenda. Let's hope that does hold true.

Having (had) a few low-volume, hand-built fun/sports cars from British, French, Italian, and Japanese manufactures, stretching from the 1990s through to 2021, how well each car was put together did vary significantly. However, one thing that was common to all was the fact that any 'niggles' experienced were very much down to the design, manufacture and quality control/assurance processes being used at the time.

Of course, the lower the volume the more "exclusive" the Emira will be, which, as an added bonus, will be appreciated by all those who are looking to take delivery of one.

 

[Lotustoronto]

I’ve been to the factory, talked to some workers and supervisors and by modern car factory standards, one car off the line every 17 minutes is an order of magnitude slower than the mainstream factories. Everyone I spoke with was confident that if they had the parts they could achieve the 25 or so cars per day they need to build per shift to meet the current production expectation of 5000 / year. There is literally nothing but the walls that remain from how they used to manufacture cars @ Hethel. How many cars they made in the past is irrelevant.

Just for grins, take a guess what interval 2 series BMW’s, including M’s, come off that line? Remember, Lotus is targeting 17 minutes and spent £100,000,000 to get there.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
~32 seconds………

I do not disagree that it's possible for Lotus to achieve those numbers... and that the factory was certainly designed to do it. I just think that running at full production, with fully trained staff and no hiccups while launching a new vehicle with a new engine variant using all new systems will take longer to scale up. I hope I am wrong.

 

[Scruff111S]

Interesting statistics but personally I prefer Lotus take their time and ensures each Emira that rolls off the production line is 'perfect' and is subject to the necessary QA procedures to ensure best possible fit and finish, both mechanically and cosmetically. From what Lotus have been saying, it seems that "getting it right" is high on Lotus' agenda. Let's hope that does hold true.

Having (had) a few low-volume, hand-built fun/sports cars from British, French, Italian, and Japanese manufactures, stretching from the 1990s through to 2020, how well each car was put together did vary significantly. However, one thing that was common to all was the fact that any 'niggles' experienced were very much down to the design, manufacture and quality control/assurance processes being used at the time.

Of course, the lower the volume the more "exclusive" the Emira will be, which will be appreciated by those who are looking to take delivery of one.

Agreed, I have had 2 Caterhams and an S2 Elise, so like you I think it is great that after 74 years, at last Lotus are looking at producing a quality product. This is obviously good for deposit holders, especially, like myself, have memories of previous Lotus Cars.

 

[Lotustoronto]

Also if there is a Chinese factory building i4's for their market as Tome as mentioned.... well that would probably change my i4 vs v6 split... and if I am honest... I think Tom is correct, Lotus would need an overflow i4 facility in china to probably keep up pace with demand. I am sure there is a lot happening behind the scenes at Hethel these days then ever before.

Another point that Harris made in the top gear interview was the idea of selling direct to consumers really only works when the vehicles are truly built to a very good and high level of reliability. I do believe Lotus is trying the hardest to bring out the best possible version of the Emira.. I think a part of the reason auto reviewers got pre-prod cars was for them to report back on short comings so that they can fix it prior to production. I also think that is why the V6, a Toyota derived proven workhorse of an engine is the one being launched. They have 20 years + experience with the chassis development process. I feel confident that the Emira will be a well built machine.